8/13/2023 0 Comments Weather 20009Current data issued on November 17, 2022. Predictions can change! NOAA revises the Outlook monthly toward the middle of the month.Equal chance for below, near, or above average precipitation for New England.NE projected at 40% to 50% chance of above normal temperatures.La Nina returns for the third consecutive winter, driving warmer-than-average temperatures along the eastern seaboard into New England.If the vortex in the northern hemisphere expands during the winter, as it often does, it sends cold air southward with the jet stream. Polar Vortex – Low Predictability – Large cold air surrounding the North and South Poles.New England generally experiences milder than normal conditions. La Nina – Opposite El Nino, colder waters push the jet stream northward, causing colder temperatures in the north and warmer in the south.El Nino – Warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position, causing northern areas to be warmer than usual. So, what can we expect for temperatures in December, January, and February? Several factors dictate our weather and are studied by the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to provide forecasts that include: The severity of the Winter conditions/temperatures will dictate electricity prices, supply, and reliability. Their goal is to help prevent energy emergencies by providing generators through forecasting with the ability to evaluate their fuel supplies. ISO-NE, the grid operator, has been planning for potential scenarios and utilizing a rolling three-week energy supply forecast to reduce risks, including monitoring certain variables like weather forecasts, energy supplies, and expected consumer demand. New England feels a greater impact on electricity pricing in the winter because generators compete for natural gas supply with heating requirements. Our heavy dependence on natural gas for electricity generation is compounded in the winter months with the need for LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) to supplement any shortfalls in natural gas supply. In New England, we have a more significant concern as we head into winter. In addition, utility electricity prices are at levels never seen before, all based on a futures market related to supply. We’ve all watched the effects on oil, natural gas, and gasoline prices. What is occurring in Europe is significantly impacting energy prices in the US and, more importantly, New England. As many of you are aware from watching the news, the global energy situation has been at the forefront of discussions for the past several months.
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